A certain activity is given optimistic (tO), pessimistic (tP) & likely time (tL) estimates. Assuming the $\beta$ distribution for these time, the expected time (tE) for completing this activity is expressed as

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  1. t= (t+ 4 t+ tP)/6
  2. t= (t- 4 t+ tP)/6
  3. t= (t+ 6 t+ tP)/4
  4. t= (t- 6 t+ tP)/4

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Option 1 : t= (t+ 4 t+ tP)/6
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Concept:

The PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique) technique is used, when activity time estimates are stochastic in nature. For each activity, three values of time (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) are estimated.

  • Optimistic time (to) estimate is the shortest possible time required for the completion of the activity
  • Most likely time (tm) estimate is the time required for the completion of activity under normal circumstances
  • Pessimistic time (tp) estimate is the longest possible time required for the completion of the activity


In PERT expected time of an activity is determined by using the belowgiven formula:

\({t_E} = \frac{{\left( {{t_o} + 4{t_L} + {t_p}} \right)}}{6}\)

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