Which of the following method is used to forecast the population of old and very large city? 

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BPSC AE Paper VI Civil 19 Dec 2024 Official Paper
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  1. Arithmetical increase method
  2. Logistic curve method
  3. Graphical method
  4. Geometric progression method

Answer (Detailed Solution Below)

Option 1 : Arithmetical increase method
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Detailed Solution

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Explanation:

Arithmetical increase method

  • Assumes population increases by a constant number every decade.

  • Suitable for old cities with slow, steady growth.

  • Simple and widely used when growth has stabilized.

Additional InformationLogistic curve method

  • Assumes rapid initial growth which slows down as saturation approaches.

  • Best for very large cities nearing capacity.

  • Involves a mathematical S-curve, more complex but realistic for long-term projection.

Graphical Method

  • Plots past population data on a graph to estimate future growth.

  • Useful for visual understanding but lacks precision.

  • Relies on user judgment, not ideal for policy-level decisions.

Geometric Progression Method

  • Assumes population increases at a constant percentage rate.

  • Suitable for developing or new towns with high growth rates.

  • Not suitable for old cities with slowing growth.

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